Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5026
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 5026 · ORD → JST
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 12:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 23%
Wed 11/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at JST more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at JST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JST?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JST
↓
JST usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
JST (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.