Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5237
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 5237 · IAH → AGU
departs 6:14 PM CT · arrives 7:36 PM CST
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 71h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31
Odds over time
Arrive at AGU more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AGU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at AGU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AGU?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
AGU usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into AGU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
AGU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.