OO 5421 · RAP → DEN

took off 11:26 AM MT · expected to land 12:15 PM MT (scheduled 11:11 AM MT → 12:56 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at RAP that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RAP (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5421 · RAP → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?