OO 5444 · ORD → SBN

departs 10:10 PM CT · arrives 12:01 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into SBN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SBN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5444 · ORD → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?