Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 5499 · ORD → SBN
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.