OO 5836 · PHX → LAX

departs 10:22 AM MT · arrives 11:56 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.05 in

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5836 · PHX → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?