OO 5858 · PHX → SFO

departs 7:40 PM MT · arrives 10:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.34 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5858 · PHX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?