Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 6278 · SMF → LAX
departs 7:17 PM PT · arrives 8:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.