Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 6457 · PHX → TUS
departs 6:55 PM MT · arrives 7:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TUS at that hour are often late
↓
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.