Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1002 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

UA 1002 · IAH → UIO

departs 6:06 PM CT · arrives 11:11 PM -05

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to UIO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO

↓ Arrivals into UIO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.10 in

UIO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1002 · IAH → UIO

Odds over time

How late will it get to UIO?