Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1010 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1010 · TPA → ORD

departs 4:28 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1010 · TPA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?