Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1022 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1022 · DEN → SAT

departs 1:44 PM MT · arrives 4:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SAT that day

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1022 · DEN → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?