Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1034 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1034 · IAH → PTY

departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 6:24 PM EST

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into PTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1034 · IAH → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?