Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1036 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1036 · ORD → RSW

departs 9:05 AM CT · arrives 1:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

RSW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1036 · ORD → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?