Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1057 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1057 · ORD → TPA

departs 1:51 PM CT · arrives 5:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

TPA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1057 · ORD → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?