Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1127 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1127 · BNA → ORD

departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 8:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,367 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1127 · BNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?