Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1148 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1148 · IAH → SMF

departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 10:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1148 · IAH → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?