Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1195 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1195 · LAX → SFO

departs 8:05 PM PT · arrives 9:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 62% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1195 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?