Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1204 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1204 · AUS → SFO

departs 8:59 PM CT · arrives 11:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 8pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.12 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1204 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?