Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1206 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1206 · EWR → ORD

departs 9:42 PM ET · arrives 11:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1206 · EWR → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?