Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1211 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1211 · ORD → AUS

departs 1:31 PM CT · arrives 4:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

AUS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1211 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?