Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1220 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1220 · DEN → DTW

departs 5:47 PM MT · arrives 10:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1220 · DEN → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?