Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1223 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

UA 1223 · ORD → CVG

departs 9:33 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

CVG (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1223 · ORD → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?