Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1254 · DEN → PHX

departs 4:12 PM MT · arrives 5:24 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1254 · DEN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?