Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1297 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1297 · ORD → GRR

departs 10:37 AM CT · arrives 12:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into GRR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

GRR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1297 · ORD → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?