Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1346 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1346 · HNL → SFO

departs 10:10 PM HT · arrives 5:09 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are usually not late

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1346 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?