Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1407 · MCO → EWR

departs 7:18 PM ET · arrives 10:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

EWR (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1407 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?