Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1444 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1444 · IAH → EWR

departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 12:37 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.13 in

EWR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1444 · IAH → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?