Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1470 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1470 · SBP → DEN

departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 4:35 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

DEN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1470 · SBP → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?