Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1490 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1490 · SFO → SBP

departs 7:09 PM PT · arrives 8:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SBP (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1490 · SFO → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?