Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1495 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

UA 1495 · ORD → SFO

departs 8:04 PM CT · arrives 10:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±13 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1495 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?