Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1542 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1542 · IAH → SAT

departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 9:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SAT that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

SAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1542 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?