Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1684 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1684 · SFO → LIH

departs 4:55 PM PT · arrives 7:42 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LIH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LIH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1684 · SFO → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?