Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1754 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1754 · LAX → FAT

departs 7:01 PM PT · arrives 8:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ 7pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.10 in

FAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1754 · LAX → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?