Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1754 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1754 · MFR → SFO

departs 2:11 PM PT · arrives 3:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MFR (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility0 mi Precip0.04 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1754 · MFR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?