Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1757 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1757 · SFO → RNO

departs 10:54 PM PT · arrives 12:21 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

RNO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1757 · SFO → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?