Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1776 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1776 · ORD → PHL

departs 6:48 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1776 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?