Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1853 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1853 · MTY → IAH

departs 3:59 PM CST · arrives 6:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MTY

↓ 3pm departures from MTY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MTY (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1853 · MTY → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?