Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 185 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 185 · GUM → YAP

departs 11:43 PM ChST · arrives 1:37 AM +10

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at YAP more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YAP?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into YAP at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUM

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YAP (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 185 · GUM → YAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to YAP?