Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1862 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1862 · SFO → SMF

departs 6:43 PM PT · arrives 7:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SMF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1862 · SFO → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?