Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1902 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1902 · IAH → GUA

departs 4:55 PM CT · arrives 6:54 PM CST

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at GUA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GUA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUA

↓ Arrivals into GUA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

GUA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1902 · IAH → GUA

Odds over time

How late will it get to GUA?