Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1920 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 1920 · ORD → BZN

departs 4:43 PM CT · arrives 6:58 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

BZN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1920 · ORD → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?