Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2000 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2000 · ORD → STL

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 3:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

STL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2000 · ORD → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?