Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2001 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2001 · SFO → BUR

departs 6:41 PM PT · arrives 8:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

BUR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2001 · SFO → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?