Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2086 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2086 · IAH → CMH

departs 8:05 PM CT · arrives 12:09 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.11 in

CMH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2086 · IAH → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?