Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2154 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2154 · DEN → BUR

departs 11:15 AM MT · arrives 12:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2154 · DEN → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?