Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2220 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2220 · SFO → EWR

departs 2:58 PM PT · arrives 11:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2220 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?