Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2240 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2240 · IAH → ATL

departs 6:09 PM CT · arrives 9:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

ATL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2240 · IAH → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?