Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2282 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2282 · LAX → IAD

departs 9:18 PM PT · arrives 4:37 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at LAX that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2282 · LAX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?