Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2304 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2304 · EYW → ORD

departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2304 · EYW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?